Premier League 2025-26
328 matches played, 52 remaining · updated April 19, 2026
Upcoming fixtures
11 matches across the next 2 gameweeks. Bar shows home win / draw / away win probabilities; xG columns are the expected goals per side; likely score is the most probable scoreline within the most likely outcome bucket (percentage in parens is that scoreline's joint probability). Each gameweek’s biggest fixture — picked by combined race stakes — is featured beneath its schedule.
Gameweek 33 (double matchweek)Apr 20 – Apr 224 matches
| Date | Home | Away | Home win · Draw · Away win | xG | Likely score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20 | Crystal Palace | vs | West Ham | 40% 29% 31% | 1.31 – 1.12 | 1–0(11%) |
| Apr 21 | Brighton | vs | Chelsea | 33% 27% 40% | 1.36 – 1.52 | 1–2(9%) |
| Apr 22 | Bournemouth | vs | Leeds United | 52% 26% 22% | 1.67 – 0.99 | 1–0(11%) |
| Apr 22 | Burnley | vs | Manchester City | 16% 24% 60% | 0.86 – 1.86 | 0–1(11%) |
Featured match
Palace host West Ham, with the Hammers scrapping to stay up at a 45% relegation risk while the hosts sit comfortably mid-table. In form, the hosts arrive in good nick, with 3 wins from their last five. The sides last met on September 20th at the London Stadium, with a result of West Ham 1–2 Palace. The model leans toward the Eagles (40% home win, 29% draw, 31% away), with 1–0 the likeliest scoreline at 11%.
Gameweek 33 · 2026-04-20
Palace
WDWLW
vs
West Ham
WLDWL
Scoreline probabilities
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.5% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Most likely: Palace 1–0 West Ham · 10.5%
Match outcome
Palace win 39.8%
Draw 29.4%
West Ham win 30.8%
Earlier this season
2025-09-20West Ham 1–2 Palace
Gameweek 34 (reduced — 6 teams doubled in MW33)Apr 24 – Apr 277 matches
| Date | Home | Away | Home win · Draw · Away win | xG | Likely score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24 | Sunderland | vs | Nottingham Forest | 49% 29% 23% | 1.45 – 0.91 | 1–0(13%) |
| Apr 25 | Arsenal | vs | Newcastle United | 64% 23% 13% | 1.86 – 0.72 | 1–0(13%) |
| Apr 25 | Fulham | vs | Aston Villa | 45% 27% 28% | 1.58 – 1.21 | 2–1(9%) |
| Apr 25 | Liverpool | vs | Crystal Palace | 43% 28% 29% | 1.42 – 1.13 | 1–0(10%) |
| Apr 25 | West Ham | vs | Everton | 28% 28% 44% | 1.15 – 1.50 | 0–1(10%) |
| Apr 25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | vs | Tottenham | 22% 24% 54% | 1.14 – 1.88 | 1–2(10%) |
| Apr 27 | Manchester United | vs | Brentford | 52% 24% 24% | 1.87 – 1.21 | 2–1(10%) |
Featured match
West Ham host Everton in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Hammers scrapping to stay up at a 45% relegation risk, the Toffees chasing a Conference League spot (16% for 7th). The sides last met on September 29th at Hill Dickinson Stadium, with a result of Everton 1–1 West Ham. The model leans toward the Toffees (28% home win, 28% draw, 44% away), with 0–1 the likeliest scoreline at 10%.
Gameweek 34 · 2026-04-25
West Ham
WLDWL
vs
Everton
LDWLW
Scoreline probabilities
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6+ | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Most likely: West Ham 0–1 Everton · 9.6%
Match outcome
West Ham win 28.1%
Draw 27.6%
Everton win 44.3%
Earlier this season
2025-09-29Everton 1–1 West Ham
Projected final table
Title (1st)
Champions League (top 5)
Europa League (6th)
Conference League (7th)
Relegation
England confirmed a 5th Champions League slot for 2026-27 via UEFA's European
Performance coefficient. Europa and Conference League slots shown reflect the
standard league route; FA Cup and EFL Cup winners can cascade the 6th / 7th
slots down one place.
| Team | E[Pts] | 5–95% | Title | Champions | Europa | Conf. | Releg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 80.8 | 76–85 | |||||
| 2 | Manchester City | 78.6 | 74–83 | |||||
| 3 | Manchester United | 65.7 | 61–71 | |||||
| 4 | Aston Villa | 64.6 | 60–69 | |||||
| 5 | Liverpool | 62.0 | 57–67 | |||||
| 6 | Chelsea | 55.1 | 50–60 | |||||
| 7 | AFC Bournemouth | 54.8 | 50–60 | |||||
| 8 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 54.6 | 50–59 | |||||
| 9 | Everton | 54.5 | 50–59 | |||||
| 10 | Brentford | 53.9 | 50–58 | |||||
| 11 | Sunderland | 53.1 | 48–58 | |||||
| 12 | Fulham | 52.0 | 48–57 | |||||
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 50.1 | 45–56 | |||||
| 14 | Newcastle United | 48.1 | 44–52 | |||||
| 15 | Leeds United | 46.0 | 41–51 | |||||
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 41.7 | 37–46 | |||||
| 17 | West Ham United | 38.5 | 34–44 | |||||
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 37.7 | 33–43 | |||||
| 19 | Burnley | 24.6 | 21–29 | |||||
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 22.0 | 18–27 |
What needs to happen
For each club still in a live Title / Champions League / relegation race, here’s how the probability would move given the result of their next match. Conditional on each W/D/L outcome, derived from the same Monte Carlo run powering the projections. "pp" = percentage points.
Title race
Arsenal
P(1st)70%
H vs Newcastle · April 25th
Win(64% likely)78%+7.8 pp
Draw(23% likely)60%−10.3 pp
Loss(13% likely)51%−18.9 pp
Man City
P(1st)30%
A vs Burnley · April 22nd
Win(60% likely)38%+8.0 pp
Draw(24% likely)21%−8.9 pp
Loss(16% likely)13%−16.8 pp
Champions League (top 5)
Liverpool
P(UCL)86%
H vs Palace · April 25th
Win(43% likely)95%+8.9 pp
Draw(28% likely)83%−2.4 pp
Loss(29% likely)75%−10.9 pp
Chelsea
P(UCL)7%
A vs Brighton · April 21st
Win(40% likely)13%+5.8 pp
Draw(27% likely)4%−2.7 pp
Loss(33% likely)2%−4.8 pp
Relegation battle
Tottenham
P(drop)48%
A vs Wolves · April 25th
Win(54% likely)35%−12.6 pp
Draw(24% likely)58%+10.5 pp
Loss(22% likely)66%+18.9 pp
West Ham
P(drop)45%
A vs Palace · April 20th
Win(31% likely)27%−17.2 pp
Draw(29% likely)46%+1.1 pp
Loss(40% likely)57%+12.3 pp
Forest
P(drop)7%
A vs Sunderland · April 24th
Win(23% likely)1%−6.4 pp
Draw(29% likely)6%−1.1 pp
Loss(49% likely)11%+3.6 pp
Clinch watch
Strict-math status — what every remaining result could and couldn’t still produce. Ignores goal-difference tiebreakers, so the bar to "clinched" or "relegated" here is slightly conservative; probabilistic picture lives in the Projected final table above.
Champions (mathematically)
— not yet decided
Out of the title race
Chelsea Brentford Bournemouth Brighton Everton Sunderland Fulham Palace Newcastle Leeds Forest West Ham Tottenham Burnley Wolves
Champions League clinched (top 5)
Arsenal Man City
Out of the Champions League race (top 5)
Leeds Forest West Ham Tottenham Burnley Wolves
European qualification secured (top 7)
Arsenal Man City
Out of European qualification (top 7)
Tottenham Burnley Wolves
Safe from relegation
Arsenal Man City Man United Villa Liverpool Chelsea Brentford Bournemouth Brighton Everton
Relegated (mathematically)
— no clubs mathematically relegated yet
Run-in
Remaining fixtures for each side, in chronological order. Each tile is an opponent (TLA) with H/A marker; colour scales with that team's win probability in the match — green means favoured, yellow is a coin flip, red is a heavy underdog. "xPts rem" sums the expected points from all remaining matches; "/match" is the average (a schedule-difficulty proxy). Hover a tile for date, xG, and W/D/L probabilities.
| Team | Rem | H/A | xPts rem | /match | Remaining fixtures | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 3/2 | 10.9 | 2.17 | NEWHFULHWHUABURHCRYA |
| 2 | Manchester City | 6 | 3/3 | 11.6 | 1.93 | BURAEVEABREHBOUACRYHAVLH |
| 3 | Manchester United | 5 | 3/2 | 7.7 | 1.54 | BREHLIVHSUNANFOHBHAA |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 5 | 2/3 | 6.6 | 1.32 | FULATOTHBURALIVHMCIA |
| 5 | Liverpool | 5 | 3/2 | 7.0 | 1.40 | CRYHMUNACHEHAVLABREH |
| 6 | Chelsea | 5 | 2/3 | 7.1 | 1.42 | BHAANFOHLIVATOTHSUNA |
| 7 | Brentford | 5 | 2/3 | 5.8 | 1.17 | MUNAWHUHMCIACRYHLIVA |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 5 | 3/2 | 6.9 | 1.37 | LEEHCRYHFULAMCIHNFOA |
| 9 | Brighton | 5 | 3/2 | 7.6 | 1.51 | CHEHNEWAWOLHLEEAMUNH |
| 10 | Everton | 5 | 2/3 | 7.5 | 1.50 | WHUAMCIHCRYASUNHTOTA |
| 11 | Sunderland | 5 | 3/2 | 7.1 | 1.41 | NFOHWOLAMUNHEVEACHEH |
| 12 | Fulham | 5 | 3/2 | 7.0 | 1.40 | AVLHARSABOUHWOLANEWH |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 3/4 | 8.0 | 1.15 | WHUHLIVABOUAEVEHBREAMCIAARSH |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 5 | 2/3 | 6.1 | 1.21 | ARSABHAHNFOAWHUHFULA |
| 15 | Leeds United | 5 | 2/3 | 7.0 | 1.41 | BOUABURHTOTABHAHWHUA |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 2/3 | 5.7 | 1.15 | SUNACHEANEWHMUNABOUH |
| 17 | West Ham | 6 | 3/3 | 6.5 | 1.09 | CRYAEVEHBREAARSHNEWALEEH |
| 18 | Tottenham | 5 | 2/3 | 6.7 | 1.35 | WOLAAVLALEEHCHEAEVEH |
| 19 | Burnley | 5 | 3/2 | 4.5 | 0.91 | MCIHLEEAAVLHARSAWOLH |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 3/2 | 5.0 | 1.00 | TOTHSUNHBHAAFULHBURA |
Key remaining matches
Every unplayed fixture ranked by combined race stakes — the sum of how live each side’s title / Champions League / relegation race is. Use this to spot the high-leverage games further out than the next weekend’s slate.
| Date | GW | Fixture | W / D / L | Stakes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 10th | MW 36 | West Ham vs Arsenal | 18% 23% 59% | West Ham drop 45% Arsenal title 70% |
| 2 | May 17th | MW 37 | Chelsea vs Tottenham | 36% 28% 36% | Chelsea Europa 22% Tottenham drop 48% |
| 3 | May 24th | MW 38 | Tottenham vs Everton | 25% 28% 48% | Tottenham drop 48% Everton Conf. 16% |
| 4 | April 25th | MW 34 | West Ham vs Everton | 28% 28% 44% | West Ham drop 45% Everton Conf. 16% |
| 5 | May 2nd | MW 35 | Brentford vs West Ham | 55% 24% 21% | West Ham drop 45% |
| 6 | May 17th | MW 37 | Bournemouth vs Man City | 30% 28% 42% | Bournemouth Conf. 16% Man City title 30% |
| 7 | May 4th | MW 35 | Everton vs Man City | 25% 27% 48% | Everton Conf. 16% Man City title 30% |
| 8 | May 9th | MW 36 | Man City vs Brentford | 66% 20% 13% | Man City title 30% |
| 9 | April 21st | MW 33 | Brighton vs Chelsea | 33% 27% 40% | Brighton Europa 17% Chelsea Europa 22% |
| 10 | May 9th | MW 36 | Liverpool vs Chelsea | 38% 26% 36% | Liverpool UCL 86% Chelsea Europa 22% |
Race tracker
One snapshot logged (1 so far). The chart will start drawing once at least two distinct gameweeks have been recorded — typically after the next matchday.
Position probability heatmap
Current table
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 26 | +37 | 70 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 65 | 29 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 45 | +13 | 58 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 41 | +6 | 58 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | +11 | 55 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 53 | 42 | +11 | 48 |
| 7 | Brentford | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 44 | +4 | 48 |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 48 |
| 9 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 45 | 39 | +6 | 47 |
| 10 | Everton | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 47 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 46 |
| 12 | Fulham | 33 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 43 | 46 | -3 | 45 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 42 |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 42 |
| 15 | Leeds United | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 36 |
| 17 | West Ham United | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 32 |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 31 |
| 19 | Burnley | 33 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 34 | 67 | -33 | 20 |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 61 | -37 | 17 |
Golden boot
Projected season-end goals for the tracked scorers, sorted by total. "+rem" is expected additional goals over the remaining schedule, derived from each team's fixture-adjusted xG and the player's current share of their team's goals. "Share" shows that share (scaled up so tracked scorers account for the full team GF). Bar length compares to the projected leader.
| Player | Team | Goals | +rem | Proj total | Share | A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 23 | +3.8 | 35% | 7 | |
| 2 | Thiago Rodrigues | Brentford | 21 | +2.8 | 44% | 1 | |
| 3 | Antoine Semenyo | Manchester City | 15 | +2.5 | 23% | 4 | |
| 4 | João Pedro | Chelsea | 14 | +1.9 | 26% | 5 | |
| 5 | Viktor Gyökeres | Arsenal | 12 | +2.0 | 19% | 0 | |
| 6 | Danny Welbeck | Brighton | 12 | +1.9 | 27% | 0 | |
| 7 | Morgan Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | 12 | +1.9 | 33% | 3 | |
| 8 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Leeds United | 11 | +1.9 | 26% | 1 | |
| 9 | Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 11 | +1.6 | 23% | 2 | |
| 10 | Hugo Ekitike | Liverpool | 11 | +1.5 | 20% | 4 | |
| 11 | Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | 10 | +2.1 | 29% | 0 | |
| 12 | Harry Wilson | Fulham | 10 | +1.7 | 23% | 6 | |
| 13 | Eli Kroupi | Bournemouth | 10 | +1.4 | 20% | 0 | |
| 14 | Raúl Jiménez | Fulham | 9 | +1.5 | 21% | 3 | |
| 15 | Richarlison | Tottenham | 9 | +1.5 | 21% | 3 |
Defence
Clean-sheet and goals-against leaderboard, sorted by projected season clean sheets. "So far" columns are the banked counts from matches already played; "+rem" is the expected additional from remaining fixtures (sum of P(opponent scores 0) for clean sheets, sum of expected goals conceded for GA). "Proj" is the season-end total. Chips are coloured by the projected total.
| Team | GP | CS | +rem | Proj CS | GA | +rem | Proj GA | CS rate | GA/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 15 | +2.3 | 17.3 | 26 | +4.0 | 30.0 | 45% | 0.79 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 13 | +2.3 | 15.3 | 29 | +5.7 | 34.7 | 40% | 0.91 |
| 3 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | +1.9 | 12.9 | 36 | +9.4 | 45.4 | 34% | 1.19 |
| 4 | Everton | 38 | 11 | +1.7 | 12.7 | 39 | +5.6 | 44.6 | 33% | 1.17 |
| 5 | Sunderland | 38 | 10 | +1.5 | 11.5 | 40 | +6.0 | 46.0 | 30% | 1.21 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 38 | 10 | +1.2 | 11.2 | 43 | +7.2 | 50.2 | 30% | 1.32 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 38 | 9 | +1.3 | 10.3 | 50 | +6.9 | 56.9 | 27% | 1.50 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 38 | 9 | +1.3 | 10.3 | 42 | +6.7 | 48.7 | 27% | 1.28 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 38 | 9 | +1.3 | 10.3 | 41 | +7.2 | 48.2 | 27% | 1.27 |
| 10 | Brentford | 38 | 9 | +1.1 | 10.1 | 44 | +8.1 | 52.1 | 27% | 1.37 |
| 11 | Brighton | 38 | 8 | +1.5 | 9.5 | 39 | +6.3 | 45.3 | 25% | 1.19 |
| 12 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 8 | +1.2 | 9.2 | 45 | +7.2 | 52.2 | 24% | 1.37 |
| 13 | Newcastle United | 38 | 8 | +1.2 | 9.2 | 49 | +7.4 | 56.4 | 24% | 1.48 |
| 14 | Fulham | 38 | 7 | +1.3 | 8.3 | 46 | +7.1 | 53.1 | 22% | 1.40 |
| 15 | Leeds United | 38 | 7 | +1.3 | 8.3 | 49 | +7.0 | 56.0 | 22% | 1.47 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 38 | 7 | +1.3 | 8.3 | 53 | +7.0 | 60.0 | 22% | 1.58 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 38 | 6 | +1.3 | 7.3 | 45 | +6.7 | 51.7 | 19% | 1.36 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 5 | +1.2 | 6.2 | 57 | +10.0 | 67.0 | 16% | 1.76 |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38 | 4 | +1.2 | 5.2 | 61 | +7.5 | 68.5 | 14% | 1.80 |
| 20 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | +1.0 | 5.0 | 67 | +9.3 | 76.3 | 13% | 2.01 |